ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey’s presidential election appeared on Sunday to be headed for a runoff after the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, didn’t win a majority of the vote, a outcome that left the longtime chief struggling to stave off the hardest political problem of his profession.

The end result of the vote set the stage for a two-week battle between Mr. Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition chief, to safe victory in a Might 28 runoff which will reshape Turkey’s political panorama.

With the unofficial rely practically accomplished, Mr. Erdogan obtained 49.4 % of the vote to Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s 44.8 %, in response to the state-run Anadolu information company.

However each side claimed to be forward.

“Though the ultimate outcomes should not in but, we’re main by far,” Mr. Erdogan advised supporters gathered outdoors his get together’s headquarters in Ankara, the capital.

Talking at his personal get together’s headquarters, Mr. Kilicdaroglu mentioned the vote would categorical the “nation’s will.” He mentioned, “We’re right here till every vote is counted.’’

The competing claims got here early Monday after a nail-biter night throughout which every camp accused the opposite of saying deceptive info. Mr. Erdogan warned the opposition on Twitter towards “usurping the nationwide will” and referred to as on his get together devoted “to not depart the polling stations, it doesn’t matter what, till the outcomes are finalized.”

Opposition politicians disputed the preliminary totals reported by Anadolu, saying that their very own figures collected instantly from polling stations confirmed Mr. Kilicdaroglu within the lead.

At stake is the course of a NATO member that has managed to unsettle lots of its Western allies by sustaining heat ties with the Kremlin. One of many world’s 20 largest economies, Turkey has an array of political and financial ties that span Asia, Africa, Europe and the Center East, and its home and international insurance policies might shift profoundly relying on who wins.

After he turned prime minister in 2003, he presided over a interval of super financial progress that reworked Turkish cities and lifted tens of millions of Turks out of poverty. Internationally, he was hailed as a brand new mannequin of a democratic Islamist, one who was pro-business and wished robust ties with the West.

However over the previous decade, Mr. Erdogan’s critics grew each at house and overseas. He confronted mass protests towards his governing fashion in 2013, and in 2016, two years after he turned president, he survived a coup try. Alongside the way in which, he seized alternatives to sideline rivals and collect extra energy into his arms, drawing accusations from the political opposition that he was tipping the nation into autocracy.

Since 2018, a sinking forex and inflation that official figures say exceeded 80 % final 12 months and was 44 % final month have eroded the worth of Turks’ financial savings and salaries.

Mr. Erdogan’s incapability to clinch a victory within the first spherical of voting on Sunday confirmed a decline in his standing amongst voters offended along with his stewardship of the economic system and his consolidation of energy. In his final election, in 2018, he gained outright towards three different candidates with 53 % of the vote. His closest challenger obtained 31 %.

On Sunday, one voter, Fatma Cay, mentioned she had supported Mr. Erdogan previously however didn’t accomplish that this time, partially as a result of she was offended at how costly foodstuffs like onions had grow to be.

“He has forgotten the place he comes from,” mentioned Ms. Cay, 70. “This nation can increase somebody up, however we additionally know the way to deliver somebody down.”

Nonetheless, she didn’t flip to Mr. Kilicdaroglu, voting as an alternative for a 3rd candidate, Sinan Ogan, who obtained about 5 % of the vote. The elimination of Mr. Ogan might give an edge to Mr. Erdogan within the runoff, as Mr. Ogan’s right-wing nationalist followers usually tend to favor him.

Mr. Erdogan stays in style with rural, working class and spiritual voters, who credit score him with creating the nation, enhancing its worldwide standing and increasing the rights of religious Muslims in Turkey’s staunchly secular state.

“We simply love Erdogan,” mentioned Halil Karaaslan, a retiree. “He has constructed the whole lot: roads, bridges and drones. Persons are comfy and in peace.”

That, Mr. Karaaslan mentioned, was extra vital than rising costs. “There is no such thing as a financial disaster,” he mentioned. “Certain, issues are costly, however salaries are virtually as excessive. It balances.”

In search of to capitalize on voter frustration, a coalition of six opposition events got here collectively to problem Mr. Erdogan, backing a joint candidate, Mr. Kilicdaroglu.

Mr. Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant who ran Turkey’s social safety administration earlier than main Turkey’s largest opposition get together, campaigned because the antithesis of Mr. Erdogan. Providing a distinction to Mr. Erdogan’s tough-guy rhetoric, Mr. Kilicdaroglu filmed marketing campaign movies in his modest kitchen, speaking about each day points like the worth of onions.

Sunday’s vote was additionally held to find out the make-up of Turkey’s 600-member Parliament, though the outcomes for these seats weren’t anticipated till Monday. The Parliament misplaced vital energy when the nation modified to a presidential system after a referendum backed by Mr. Erdogan in 2017. The opposition has vowed to return the nation to a parliamentary system.

Including to the significance of those elections for a lot of Turks is that 2023 marks the one centesimal anniversary of the nation’s founding as a republic after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. A nationwide celebration is scheduled for the anniversary, on Oct. 29, and the president will preside over it.

The election was additionally pushed by points which have lengthy polarized Turkish society, like the correct place for faith in a state dedicated to strict secularism. In his 11 years as prime minister and 9 as president, Mr. Erdogan has expanded spiritual training and eased guidelines that restricted spiritual costume.

Derya Akca, 29, cited her want to cowl her hair as a main cause she supported Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Growth Celebration. “They defend my freedom to put on a head scarf, which is crucial issue for me,” mentioned Ms. Akca, who works in an Istanbul clothes retailer.

She recalled being so embarrassed after a school professor humiliated her in entrance of the category that she stop faculty, a choice she now regrets. “I felt like an outsider,” she mentioned. “I now want I had stayed and fought.”

However elsewhere within the metropolis, Deniz Deniz, the co-owner of a bar in style with the town’s L.G.B.T.Q. neighborhood, bemoaned how the variety of such institutions had diminished previously decade of Mr. Erdogan’s tenure.

“I would like a lot to alter,” Mr. Deniz mentioned. “I desire a nation the place LGBT+ folks and ladies aren’t rejected. I would like an egalitarian and democratic nation.”

In Turkey’s southern area, which was devastated by highly effective earthquakes in February that killed greater than 50,000 individuals, many citizens took out their anger on the authorities’s response on the poll field.

“We had an earthquake and the federal government didn’t even intervene,” mentioned Rasim Dayanir, a quake survivor who voted for Mr. Kilicdaroglu. “However our minds have been made up earlier than the earthquake.”

Mr. Dayanir, 25, had fled the town of Antakya, which was largely destroyed within the quake, however returned with eight relations to vote on Sunday.

He stood amid a whole bunch of voters who had lined as much as vote inside a main faculty. Others solid votes in transport containers that had been set as much as exchange destroyed polling locations. Mr. Dayanir mentioned his uncle, aunt and different members of his household had been killed within the quake.

“We’re hopeful,” he mentioned. “We consider in change.”

Ben Hubbard reported from Ankara, and Gulsin Harman from Istanbul. Reporting was contributed by Elif Ince from Istanbul, Safak Timur from Ankara and Nimet Kirac from Antakya.